第二次參加建模，覺得建模太有趣了，用幾天的時間，迅速學習新知識，並解決實際問題。
————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
Will the world run out of clean water? According to the United Nations, 1.6 billion people (one quarter of the world's population) experience water scarcity. Water use has been growing at twice the rate of population over the last century. Humans require water resources for industrial, agricultural, and residential purposes. There are two primary causes for water scarcity: physical scarcity and economic scarcity. Physical scarcity is where there is inadequate water in a region to meet demand. Economic scarcity is where water exists but poor management and lack of infrastructure limits the availability of clean water. Many scientists see this water scarcity problem becoming exacerbated with climate change and population increase. The fact that water use is increasing at twice the rate of population suggests that there is another cause of scarcity – is it increasing rates of personal consumption, or increasing rates of industrial consumption, or increasing pollution which depletes the supply of fresh water, or what? **
Is it possible to provide clean fresh water to all? The supply of water must take into account the physical availability of water (e.g., natural water source, technological advances such as desalination plants or rainwater harvesting techniques). Understanding water availability is an inherently interdisciplinary problem. One must not only understand the environmental constraints on water supply, but also how social factors influence availability and distribution of clean water. For example, lack of adequate sanitation can cause a decrease in water quality. Human population increase also places increased burden on the water supply within a region. When analyzing issues of water scarcity, the following types of questions must be considered. How have humans historically exacerbated or alleviated water scarcity? What are the geological, topographical, and ecological reasons for water scarcity, and how can we accurately predict future water availability? What is the potential for new or alternate sources of water (for example, desalinization plants, water harvesting techniques or undiscovered aquifers)? What are the demographic and health related problems tied to water scarcity?
Problem Statement
The International Clean water Movement (ICM) wants your team to help them solve the world’s water problems. Can you help improve access to clean, fresh water?
Task 1: Develop a model that provides a measure of the ability of a region to provide clean water to meet the needs of its population. You may need to consider the dynamic nature of the factors that affect both supply and demand in your modeling process.
Task 2: Using the UN water scarcity map (http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/jpg/0222- waterstress-overuse-EN.jpg) pick one country or region where water is either heavily or moderately overloaded. Explain why and how water is scarce in that region. Make sure to explain both the social and environmental drivers by addressing physical and/or economic scarcity.
Task 3: In your chosen region from Task 2, use your model from Task 1 to show what the water situation will be in 15 years. How does this situation impact the lives of citizens of this region? Be sure to incorporate the environmental drivers’ effects on the model components.
Task 4: For your chosen region, design an intervention plan taking all the drivers of water scarcity into account. Any intervention plan will inevitably impact the surrounding areas, as well
as the entire water ecosystem. Discuss this impact and the overall strengths and weaknesses of the plan in this larger context. How does your plan mitigate water scarcity?
Task 5: Use the intervention you designed in Task 4 and your model to project water availability into the future. Can your chosen region become less susceptible to water scarcity? Will water become a critical issue in the future? If so, when will this scarcity occur?
Task 6: Write a 20-page report (the one-page summary sheet does not count in the 20 pages) that explains your model, water scarcity in your region with no intervention, your intervention, and the effect of your intervention on your region’s and the surrounding area’s water availability. Be sure to detail the strengths and weaknesses of your model. The ICM will use your report to help with its mission to produce plans to provide access to clean water for all citizens of the world. Good luck in your modeling work!
——————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
世界將來有一天會缺失水資源嗎？根據UN的說法，1.6百萬的人口正在經歷水匱乏問題，這已將近世界四分之一的人口。相對於上個世紀而言，水資源的使用正以兩倍於人口增長的速率遞增。人類在工業、農業以及生活居住方面都需要用水。如今有兩種類型的水資源匱乏起因：物理型以及經濟型。物理型缺水是指這片區域沒有足夠的供水來滿足需求。經濟型缺水是指在這片區域中存在水資源，但是由於管理的乏力以及公共設施的缺失限制了凈水資源的獲取。隨着氣候的變化與人口的增長，許多科學家愈加覺得水匱乏問題正變得愈加嚴重。水資源的使用正以兩倍於人口增長的速率增長的顯示告訴我們，引起水資源的匱乏或許有另外的因素：會是個人使用的增長，還是工業使用的增長，甚至會是日益嚴重的污染情況銳減了凈水資源的供應嗎？抑或還會有其他的原因呢？
將凈水資源提供給所有人是一個可行的將來嗎？水資源的供給必須考慮水資源本身的物理獲取（比如說是自然水資源還是科技獲水）。我們需要知道水資源的獲取在本質上是一個跨學科的問題。我們不止需要了解水資源供應的環境方面的限制，還需要了解社會因素是如何影響凈水資源的獲取與分配的。比如說，缺乏適當的衛生設施會使得水質的下降。在一個區域內，人口資源的上升也會加重水資源供給的負擔。在分析水匱乏問題時，以下問題必須考慮在內：歷史上，人類采取了什么措施加劇了亦或是減輕了水資源匱乏的問題？導致缺水的地質，地形和生態的原因是什么，以及我們如何能夠准確地預測未來水的供應？新的或者是可替代水資源，他們潛力幾何？和水資源匱乏相關的人口統計學問題以及健康問題有哪些？
Can you help improve access to clean,fresh water? 你能幫忙提升凈水資源的獲取嗎？
Task 1：設計一個模型。這個模型提供的是一個測量一個地區能夠供給凈水資源的來滿足人口需求的能力。在構造模型的步驟中，需要將影響供求關系的因素的動態性考慮進去。
Task2：http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/jpg/0222- waterstress-overuse-EN.jpg，在這里尋找一個heavily or moderately的城市，解釋在該城市水資源是如何被污染的。確保從物理型以及經濟型出發分析社會以及環境因素。
Task3：在你選擇的這個城市，用task1模型展示水資源在15年后會呈現什么狀態？這個狀態將會如何影響該城市的居民生活？在模型的構件中確保要有環境驅使的因素存在。
Task4：為該城市設計一個干預措施，需要將影響水資源匱乏的所有誘因都囊括進來。任何干預計划都會不可避免地影響到周遭地區甚至是整個水生態。在這樣一個更大的環境下來探討這個影響的優劣何在。我們的計划將如何緩解水資源的匱乏？
Task5:使用你設計的干預計划以及模型來投射出未來水資源的獲取情況。該城市會對水資源匱乏的問題變得不再那么敏感嗎？水資源問題會變成未來一個至關重要的問題嗎？如果會的話，那么這個匱乏問題會在什么時候出現呢？
Task6：寫一篇20頁左右的論文，包含模型是什么，沒有干預計划下該城市的水資源匱乏情況，我們的干預計划，干預計划針對該城市以及周遭地區的水獲取的影響。確保要將模型的優劣都具體寫出來。